But... wait. So you keep losing, and you complain that every game goes the same? Maybe.. Oh, I dunno,
try doing something different?

Losing is god's way of saying "do it different next time".
Now you're talking about being disappointed with the comparison to MOO2, but the only thing you've mentioned that you don't like about Sins is losing. Don't you lose MOO2? Sounds boring to me...
Tips for fighting the AI:
The AI sucks against defences, especially pirates. They're too dopey to go around them. So work out which colony the AI is likely to hit (generally the one closest) and build 15 turrets, all right on top of each other at the edge of the planet closest to the direction the enemy will come from. If you want to be fancy, replace some turrets with a couple of repair platforms. The enemy will walk into the guns every single time, and die horribly.
Even if you guess wrong or if they've got a stupid number of ships, the AI also fails to hit builders unless they get too close. Build a turret behind whatever turret the enemy is shooting. Keep doing that. Turrets are cheap.
It's a rare fleet that can kill turrets faster than you can build them (upgrade your tactical slots to get more free builders).
Honestly, I think the poor, unchallenging AI is one of the worst parts of the game - I very much hope the builders get a massive increase in targeting priority next patch, and just the simple human tactic of
going around defences would be nice, too. The only way you ever lose a defended system is when the siege ships bums-rush your planet, so you can't rebuild turrets. You'll still do a massive amount of damage. A decent carrier fleet (all fighters) can help to back up these defence systems. Just jump back out when the sieges are dead and the enemy bombers are mostly gone - you don't want to scare the enemy away from dying at your guns.
Pirates make the game easier for you, remember that. Put a bounty on your nearest enemy - that'll keep them tied up without you needing to buy much of a fleet. When the pirates come after you, bring your capital ships to the turret planet and let them eat free xp.
When the AI attacks a turreted planet,
don't bring your whole fleet to help! You want the AI to stupidly sit under the guns and die. If they see your full fleet arrive they'll run. Wait till you've murdered most of their ships, THEN bring your fleet in to follow up and perhaps take the next enemy system. Rinse, repeat, win almost every time.
Don't get more fleet capacity than you need - it costs a massive chunk of your resources. Keep your fleet lean and mean (as in, no more than 3 upgrades) until you've got lots of economy rolling and most of your research done. Small fleet means more money to boost economy, and more money for sicking the pirates on your enemies. With turrets you almost don't need a fleet against the AI, except to expand.
Remember that capital ships have very little firepower for their popcap. Capships are for their abilities. For fighting you are much better off with frigates (I usually mass the simple, first-couple-of-techs long range frigate, with a capship or two, for about the first half of the game).
Focus fire. Look in the contested system's entry in the empire tree to the left. Note the enemy forces all nicely lined up there. Select all of one type of your ships (alt-click one), then shift left-click each of their best targets one at a time (each ship type tells you what they're best at killing in their pop-up). Do the same with each type of ship (or, for ease, just do it once with the whole fleet). Attack the capships LAST (unless you've got some awesome anti-capship move, generally involving your own capships).
***Diplomacy:
Note that the game is really built around multiplayer. Yes, I'd love to see a better AI, but even then this is always going to best with multiple players. Actually, in that context the capricious diplomacy model really makes sense: you are playing a free-for-all game. You could have picked fixed teams, but didn't. So they all know, just as players would, that There Can Be Only One. Of course they want to keep their (future) enemies fighting each other. Don't you?
So yeah, they'll make an alliance with you, but only as long as you keep doing things that help them. Otherwise, what's to stop you sheltering behind them building up, and stabbing them in the back?
The diplomacy needs tweaking, but it's a relief to me to see a diplomacy model where the player doesn't have all the power. In MOO (which I love, BTW), for example, the diplomacy basically means "follow the bleeding obvious sequence of offers and they'll almost always love you eventually". How often do you get two sides to fight, just so you can take advantage later? In Sins, it's a multiplayer free-for-all (even with AIs). Alliances are temporary, they know that, and THEY are getting YOU to fight, so they can take advantage later.
Which is pretty smart, really.