QUESTION:
Is it possible to counter the much-vaunted carrier and its associated strikecraft WITHOUT building carriers? I decided to test it personally.
SYNOPSIS:
I chose an online opponent whom I have played before, and whom my friends have played (and beaten). The people I play with consider him "mediocre." We played a 1v1, random small map. I chose vasari, he chose tec.
OPEN:
I dropped a mil lab right away, queued up a space whale, and spammed 5 scouts to find him. While waiting for the whale to come online and the scouts to find him I researched assailants. Found him, and he had dropped 2 civ labs. This was my cue to rush. His home planet was connected to the "main system" via a single asteroid chokepoint, so my plan was to take that asteroid first so that I could seal him in and also have a base of operations (my home planet was too far away to be able to replinish my attack, and my stream of forces would have to plow through too many neutral systems while being attacked the whole way).
I got to the asteroid with space whale and about 5 assailants. I took it easily, colonized it, and dropped a repair platform plus frig factory. He arrived just as I was doing this, and messaged me saying he had already lost, he shouldn't have gone eco, blah blah. I told him to continue the game because I didn't plan to build any carriers, and if it's true that "carrier spam rules" he had quite a large chance to win. He said it was going to be impossible. I told him that yes, by any reasonable measure that anyone on the street looking at it could muster, I already had the "strategic win." I had the chokepoint connecting his mini-system to the rest of the map, and it was fortified. My space whale was there, with 5 assailants, and I had repair and a frig factory. Yet, if there is anything to this "strikecraft own all" mystique, he had a chance for a "tactical win" I told him. So he continued the game.
MIDGAME:
He only had access to 2 roids in his "mini-system," so that's all he had besides his home planet. I, on the other hand, had the rest of the map, which included 1 desert, 3 terran planets (in addition to my home planet, which makes 4), and numerous asteroids, in addition to one neutral mining site with 3 mines. My plan was to build up the chokepoint roid with all my forces, not build any carriers of my own, and hope he built carriers so I could test whether they could be countered. Meanwhile, I sent my space whale (alone) in one direction, and a colony frig with a couple of assailants in another direction, in order to colonize the rest of the system.
My first spam at the roid was assailants. His initial attack was with cobalts and a Kol - easily repelled. His next attack was with Kol and lrms. I countered not only with my assailants, but with an additional scout spam (seeing as he had no cobalts). He was repelled. His 3rd attack was with the Kol, lrms, and no more than 2 or 3 carriers. At this point, just those few carriers was enough to seriously contest the roid, even though I had plenty of assailants. He managed to destroy the repair, destroy the frig factory, and bomb the roid down to nothing. I had to send my space whale back from half way across the system. I also dropped 2 frig factories on a terran planet connected to the roid, and from there I pumped as many skirmishers as I could, continuously. I managed to repel him back off the roid, and I recolonized the choke with the space whale, and rebuilt facilities.
ENDGAME:
At this point I knew he had carriers, so WE HAD OFFICIALLY ARRIVED AT THE TEST. I started my anti-carrier spam. Since it was a very small roid and I knew I could easily get to his carriers, I built tons of skirmishers NON-STOP. I built them at the roid, plus at the terran planet next door. I mixed in assailants as well, just in case. After a few minutes, his attack came. It was the Kol, carriers, and hoshikos vs. my skirmishers, assailants, and space whale.
He won, took that roid, then went up and took the terran planet. My jaw dropped. This exact conversation ensued:
Me: Apparently carriers are near impossible to counter without carriers of one's own.
Him: Well, I had hoshikos too.
Me: So what?
Him: Well, they are pretty nasty.
Me: But I had tons of skirmishers.
Him: Yeah, but the hoshikos repair faster than your counters can damage 
Me: So your carriers plus hoshikos are a "press a button and win" button?
Him: Yes.
CONCLUSION:
With a far, far superior strategic position which I had obtained, with the restriction that I would not build carriers, I could not beat a mediocre opponent who spammed carriers plus hoshikos. I had far more planets and far more resources. I only had to defend 1 system - the choke. The counters I spammed were far cheaper that his forces. I had every advantage. I don't suck at this game. But I lost.
At this point, unless the devs come out and say "the intended counter for carriers is carriers," I am ready to say that there is some sort of balance issue. Now, I did not test flak this game, but I've been told by everyone, including pros, that light frigs are a viable hard counter to carriers, plus this situation was ripe for them - there was no room for him to pull off tactics or maneuvering. In fact, this did not happen - he micro'd nothing. I, on the other hand, did micro. In particular, I grabbed my skirmisher fleet, and told it to attack every single carrier and hoshiko in the well.
