I just beat him today with George Washington (Lincoln as running mate). If you get screwed on random events early, restart because it will make things that much harder. I focused on the big states (California, Florida, Texas, Illinois(Lincoln), Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.) but not New York (too hard to get). If you can get fully upgraded HQ's in big states, and smaller ones in some smaller states where you have a decent chance of winning (ie the South, the non-coastal western and central states, Alaska, Hawaii, (Alaska and Hawaii are easy to win--just build an outpost in each, and say you support drilling in ANWR in the newspaper),etc.), you won't get too far behind, and can use the $$$ they generate to get ads later. And, near the end, use a lot TV ads to make SURE you win big states. And a webmaster or 2 might help on states where you have a lot of ads using up your $$$. Beyond that, if you feel you have a chance, save after week 30, and load if you lose (1st try, he won California and a couple other biggies (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois) and I was screwed, 2nd time I won).
Good luck--you might need it!